Investment Update May 2023

April saw a continuation of the knock-on effect from the demise of Silicon Valley Bank, with J P Morgan Chase buying First Republic Bank, whose shares had been sold off as depositors worried about the bank’s business model in the wake of rising interest rates in the US. Due to the digitalisation of finance, the speed at which bank runs can happen today is incredible. As Goldman Sachs noted, in 2008, it took 9 days for Washington Mutual to lose $18 bn in deposits. In 2023, it took 4 hours for Silicon Valley Bank to lose $42 bn of deposits! However, the impact of this on financial markets was quite muted. One positive is that the possible impact on lending resulting from the problems with small banks could have the effect of reducing GDP, which in turn could reduce the pressure on the US Federal Reserve (the ‘Fed’) to increase interest rates. Indeed, much of the speculation during the month was about the length of the higher interest rate cycle and its possible reversal.